Iran
Written by: Keyaan Rahman
Summary:
The Islamic Republic of Iran faces a great tragedy.
On May 19, 2024, an Iranian air force helicopter crashed in a small village in northwestern Iran, which was carrying five passengers and three crew members. All occupants died, including Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, and the Governor-General of East Azerbaijan Malek Rahmati. Their deaths come as the war in Gaza intensifies, with Israel beginning multiple air strikes in Rafah, leading to many military and civilian causalities.
President Raisi was returning from the Iranian border of Azerbaijan after inaugurating a dam with the Azeri President. When he returned, the helicopter was operating in dangerous weather, which may have been the cause for the Iranian Air Force helicopter to crash. When the crash occurred, initial search operations were delayed due to the mountainous, forested terrain and the heavy fog in the rural area. These harsh weather conditions continued overnight, further delaying any rescue operations. It was not until early Monday (5/20/2024) that the crash site was discovered and all the occupants were found dead. After news came out of the crash and impeding search operation, Russia, Qatar, and Iraq made statements of concern and offered support to Iranian authorities. The United States also issued condolences to Iran, while stating in their statement from the Department of State, “...we reaffirm our support for the Iranian people and their struggle for human rights and fundamental freedoms.”
Analysis:
The sudden death of President Raisi has led to concerns about the future of Iran and the presidency. President Raisi is well-known for his involvement in the brutal crackdown on nationwide protests in September 2022 over the controversial death of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old Kurdish woman who was detained by Iranian morality police for wearing an improper hijab. This has led to mixed reactions to his death amongst the Iranian and international population. Many Iranians don’t feel sorrow towards his death due to his brutal rule. With Raisi’s death, uncertainty has risen over his successor, as Raisi’s first vice president, Muhammad Mokhber, has been instated as interim president. While Mokhber has close ties with the supreme leader, he is not considered a potential presidential candidate. The position’s future seems uncertain for now.
Analysis 2:
To dive further, concerns over Iran’s foreign policy have risen since President Raisi’s death. Specifically, a rise of questions has been seen about Iran’s foreign views and involvement in the Israel-Hamas war, as Israel begins deadly strikes in Rafah, leading to thousands of casualties. Iran has historically supported Hamas and other military forces in Gaza, funding weapons, gear, artillery, and training soldiers. They have bolstered support with Hamas and other groups entering into the Israel-Hamas war. However, Raisi’s death will not significantly alter Iran’s foreign policy in the short term. President Raisi did not have complete and direct authority over Iran’s foreign policy. The Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) is the highest body in charge of Iran's foreign policy and national security. While the president influences foreign policy decisions, they cannot solely decide foreign policy. However, as Iran works to begin the transition of power to a new president, the country may refrain from armed escalation with Israel, as they have demonstrated that they are capable of doing. One major example is the Iranian air strikes on Israel on April 19, 2024. As a result, there may be a pause in escalations of attacks between Iran and Israel for the time being.
