Russia
Written by: Vidur Srikrishna
Summary:
On February 13th, 2024, Russian pilot Maxim Kuzminov was shot to death in his apartment building’s parking garage. This follows his dramatic defection to Ukraine through his helicopter. He was found dead after being shot several times and ran over. A vehicle suspected to be part of the attack was found burned miles away. This proves that these assassins were most likely professionals. They killed Kuzminov as fast as possible, then left quickly. Due to Kuzminov’s past, this was likely from Russia, and this sparks more tensions as, after all, it is a (most likely Russian) assassination on European soil. This comes shortly after Alexei Navalny’s death in a Russian prison. He was a political opposition to Putin, leading anti-Kremlin riots.
Summary (Moscow Attacks):
Fast-forwarding to March 22nd, an attack on a Moscow concert leads to the deaths of over 130 people, injuring many more. ISIS took responsibility for this attack, with the United States backing up its claim with evidence. After all of this, Putin still blamed Ukraine. This is most likely to stir up more anger against Ukraine in Russia. Before the attack, the United States warned Russia of an attack like this on the horizon if they have mass gatherings (like a concert). Putin brushed this warning across the shoulder, condemning the West’s “provocative statements.” He claimed that this was just to try to intimidate Russia.
Analysis:
This questions Putin’s domestic credibility, as he seems to be stubborn. He could have prevented this attack had he listened to the United States. This could cause issues within Russia with their people, as they may see that his stubbornness led to the deaths of Russians. They could also see that the United States was just trying to help them. Putin’s reaction to this attack is also problematic, as he immediately jumps to blaming Kyiv, saying that they planned the attack. ISIS took responsibility, and the United States has evidence to back up its claims. Due to his mishandling of this problem, it could lead Russians to speak out against it, however, this is unlikely due to a few reasons. Over time, we see what Putin can do with his loyal following in the government. This was shown in the killings of his political opponents (Maxim Kuzminov and Alexei Navalny). This asks a new question: Even if Putin’s domestic credibility takes a hit, will anything truly happen? In short, most likely nothing will happen. This is as Russians would be putting their lives in danger to speak out against Putin.
Analysis 2:
This conflict also brings up a major point in European safety. Since Kuzminov’s assassination was in European land, it brought up new security concerns in Europe. Russian assassins could be anywhere in Europe, or it could be a sign for more Russian violence on European soil. This could cause even more tensions between the EU and Russia. This is also made worse by the fact that NATO borders Russia. It is unlikely, however, that Russia would fight a war against NATO, but it still is an issue for European security.
